Forecast for Kerikeri, NZ

THIS EVENING, TUESDAY 29 APRIL Rain will continue this evening, likely moderate intensity but heavy falls are possible. There's also a chance the rain could ease or clear later tonight. Winds will be easterly 10 to 30 km/h, possibly gusting to 50 or 60 km/h in heavier falls, turning southerly or southwesterly later. It will stay mild with the low tonight around 18°C. There's a high chance of rain, with totals likely between 3 mm and 9 mm. Please be aware of active MetService alerts: * Heavy Rain Watch: Valid until midnight tonight. Periods of heavy rain, with thunderstorms and localised downpours possible. Rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria and possibly exceed them about isolated areas, especially in downpours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in force. Note, heavy rain spreading south during this afternoon and evening. Impact: Streams and rivers may rise rapidly. Surface flooding, slips, and difficult driving conditions possible. Chance of upgrading to a Warning: Moderate. Changes: Watch area now covers all of Northland. * Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Valid until midnight tonight. A band of rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected to affect Northland today. For Northland, especially north of Whangarei, there is a moderate risk that thunderstorms embedded within broader areas of rain could be SEVERE with localised rainfall rates of 25-40mm/h (or possibly more) between 2pm and midnight today (Tuesday). The risk of downpours decreases in the far north this evening. Downpours are possible in localised places and may occur regardless of whether there is thunderstorm activity or not. Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain. Note, there is also a broad-scale Heavy Rain Watch in force for this area, and this Severe Thunderstorm Watch covers the additional risk of embedded thunderstorms producing localised downpours. TOMORROW, WEDNESDAY 30 APRIL Rain is likely early morning, possibly heavy at first, then easing to light rain or just showers during the day before clearing up towards evening. The Heavy Rain and Severe Thunderstorm Watches from Tuesday continue into the very early hours before expiring. Winds will change to westerly or northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h, and could be gusty at times. The low will be between 17°C and 18°C, with the high reaching 20°C to 21°C. Rain is very likely, with amounts expected to range from 2 mm to 20 mm. THURSDAY 1 MAY Expect a mostly fine day with clear skies becoming widespread. There is still a chance of a shower, perhaps early morning or around midday. It will feel cooler with breezy southwesterly winds, around 20 to 30 km/h, which could be quite gusty, possibly reaching 50 to 70 km/h before easing later. The low will be between 13°C and 14°C, and the high around 19°C. There's a reasonable chance of seeing some precipitation, but if it occurs, amounts are likely to be small, between 1 mm and 2 mm. FRIDAY 2 MAY It's a bit uncertain for Friday. One possibility is a fine day, but another is that rain could develop, perhaps becoming moderate for a time in the afternoon. Winds will start westerly before turning southerly 10 to 20 km/h. The low is expected between 11°C and 12°C, with the high reaching between 16°C and 18°C. There's about an even chance of precipitation, and if it does rain, totals will likely be around 1 mm to 3 mm. SATURDAY 3 MAY Looking like a fine day with plenty of sunshine and clear skies expected. Winds will be southerly or southwesterly, around 10 to 20 km/h, possibly reaching 30 km/h at times. It will be a cool start with the low between 10°C and 11°C, warming up to a high between 16°C and 18°C. Precipitation is unlikely. SUNDAY 4 MAY Another mostly fine and sunny day is expected. There's just a small chance of a shower developing later in the day. Southerly winds continue, around 10 to 20 km/h, but could gust to 30 or 40 km/h, maybe even 50 km/h. The low will be between 10°C and 11°C, and the high between 18°C and 19°C. Only a slight chance of rain, likely just 1 mm if any falls. MONDAY 5 MAY It should start fine, but cloud might increase through the day. There's a slight risk of some light rain developing, mainly in the evening. Winds initially southerly 10 km/h, turning southeasterly or easterly 10 to 20 km/h later, possibly gusty. The low will be between 10°C and 11°C, and the high between 17°C and 18°C. There's a low chance of rain, perhaps 1 mm to 2 mm if it occurs.