Forecast for Otaki Beach, New Zealand (Ensemble)
Issued: 2026-04-05 08:34 NZST
Rest of Today, Sunday 5 April: Skies will start mainly clear before clouds build through late morning. Rain is very likely to develop around midday and continue through the afternoon, bringing up to 2 mm of rainfall. Conditions will clear to partly cloudy by evening. Winds will shift between southeasterlies and northwesterlies at 10 to 20 km/h, with gusts reaching 30 km/h. The low will be 13°C to 16°C, and the high is expected near 20°C to 21°C.
Tomorrow, Monday 6 April: Overcast skies will dominate the day, with dry conditions expected. Easterly winds will strengthen to 20 to 30 km/h, with gusts reaching 40 to 50 km/h by late afternoon and evening. The low will fall to 12°C to 15°C, while the high is expected to reach 20°C to 22°C.
Tuesday 7 April: Thick cloud cover will persist throughout the day, keeping conditions dry. Strong easterly winds will blow at 20 to 40 km/h, with frequent gusts of 50 to 70 km/h and a risk of stronger bursts up to 90 km/h. The low will be 15°C to 16°C, and temperatures will peak at 19°C to 21°C.
Wednesday 8 April: Rain is very likely, with daily totals expected between 2 mm and 25 mm. Heavier downpours could arrive from morning through evening, bringing a risk of minor road ponding and rising stream levels, while lighter outcomes remain possible. Overcast skies will accompany easterly to northeasterly winds at 20 to 30 km/h, gusting 40 to 70 km/h. The low will be 15°C to 17°C, and the high is expected near 18°C to 23°C.
Thursday 9 April: Rain is expected to continue, with totals likely between 4 mm and 10 mm. Showers will be most persistent through the morning and afternoon, keeping skies mostly overcast. Winds will shift between northerlies and easterlies at 10 to 20 km/h, with gusts reaching 30 to 50 km/h. The low will range from 12°C to 18°C, while the high is expected to sit between 18°C and 24°C.
Forecast in Maori
Te toenga o tēnei rā, Rātapu 5 April: Ka tīmata te rangi kia mārama, kātahi ka piki ake ngā kapua i te wā o te ata. He tino tūpono ka heke te ua i te poutūmārō o te rā, ka haere tonu i te ahiahi, ka tae te nui o te ua ki te 2 mm. Ka mārama te āhuarangi, ka noho kapua-kapua te rangi i te ahiahi. Ka huri te hau i waenganui i te tonga-mā-rāwhiti me te raki-mā-uru i te 10 ki te 20 km/h, ā, ka tae ngā hau kaha ki te 30 km/h. Ko te pāmahana iti ka 13°C ki te 16°C, ā, e tūmanakohia ana te pāmahana nui ki te 20°C ki te 21°C.
Apopo, Rāhina 6 April: Ka kapi te rangi i ngā kapua mātotoru i te rā katoa, ā, e tūmanakohia ana te āhuarangi maroke. Ka kaha ake te hau rāwhiti ki te 20 ki te 30 km/h, ā, ka tae ngā hau kaha ki te 40 ki te 50 km/h i te mutunga o te ahiahi me te pō. Ka heke te pāmahana iti ki te 12°C ki te 15°C, ā, e tūmanakohia ana te pāmahana nui ki te 20°C ki te 22°C.
Rātū 7 April: Ka noho tonu ngā kapua mātotoru i te rā katoa, ka noho maroke te āhuarangi. Ka pupuhi te hau rāwhiti kaha i te 20 ki te 40 km/h, he maha ngā hau kaha o te 50 ki te 70 km/h, ā, he tūpono ka kaha ake ki te 90 km/h. Ko te pāmahana iti ka 15°C ki te 16°C, ā, ka eke te pāmahana nui ki te 19°C ki te 21°C.
Rāapa 8 April: He tino tūpono ka heke te ua, e tūmanakohia ana te katoa o te ua i te rā ki waenganui i te 2 mm me te 25 mm. Ka taea te heke o ngā ua nui mai i te ata tae noa ki te ahiahi, ka kawea mai he tūpono mō te kohikohi wai iti i ngā huarahi me te piki o ngā taumata awa, ā, ka taea tonu te heke o te ua māmā. Ka whai ngā rangi kapi i te kapua i te hau rāwhiti ki te raki-mā-rāwhiti i te 20 ki te 30 km/h, ā, ka kaha ki te 40 ki te 70 km/h. Ko te pāmahana iti ka 15°C ki te 17°C, ā, e tūmanakohia ana te pāmahana nui ki te 18°C ki te 23°C.
Rāpare 9 April: E tūmanakohia ana ka haere tonu te ua, ā, e tūmanakohia ana te katoa ki waenganui i te 4 mm me te 10 mm. Ka roa ake te heke o ngā ua i te ata me te ahiahi, ka noho kapi tonu te rangi i ngā kapua. Ka huri te hau i waenganui i te raki me te rāwhiti i te 10 ki te 20 km/h, ā, ka tae ngā hau kaha ki te 30 ki te 50 km/h. Ka rerekē te pāmahana iti i te 12°C ki te 18°C, ā, e tūmanakohia ana te pāmahana nui ki waenganui i te 18°C me te 24°C.
Existing Vulnerabilities
- The Ōtaki Beach settlement is susceptible to coastal flooding through pathways up the Waitohu and Rangiuru Streams, particularly during large storm events.
- Low-lying areas around the lower Waitohu and Rangiuru Streams, including streets such as Moana Street, Mahoe Street, Marine Parade, and Atkinson Avenue, are identified as the most susceptible to inundation.
- While the settlement is generally protected by sand dunes and the Rangiuru floodgates, there is a residual risk of flooding if the floodgates fail to close or if wave run-up overtops the dunes at low points in the accessways.
- The main evacuation route for the Ōtaki Beach settlement is vulnerable to flooding under higher sea-level rise scenarios, which can be exacerbated by extreme storm-tide events.
Weather Impact Thresholds
- Coastal flooding and inundation: The area is susceptible to flooding from storm tides and wave run-up. A "1% annual exceedance probability" (1-in-100-year) storm event is used as a benchmark for significant coastal inundation risk.
- Heavy Swell: MetService issues a Heavy Swell Warning for the Kapiti-Porirua coast (including Ōtaki) when combined waves of significant height are expected to reach 4 metres or greater from the westerly quarter (NW-SW).
- Severe Thunderstorms: MetService criteria for severe thunderstorms include heavy rain of 25mm/h or more, large hail of 20mm diameter or more, or strong wind gusts of 110km/h or more.
- General Heavy Rain: Widespread rainfall exceeding 50mm within 6 hours or 100mm within 24 hours is generally used as a threshold for severe weather warnings in New Zealand, which can lead to rapid rises in local streams and surface flooding.
Exposed Populations and Assets
- Coastal communities: Residents and properties located along the immediate coastline, particularly in low-lying areas near the Waitohu and Rangiuru Streams, are at the highest risk of inundation.
- Critical infrastructure: The Rangiuru floodgates and the main evacuation route for the Ōtaki Beach settlement are critical assets that, if compromised by flooding, would significantly impact community safety and access.
- Vulnerable groups: As identified in the Ōtaki Floodplain Management Plan, the elderly, disabled, those on low incomes, those in rental housing, and ethnic minorities are considered more vulnerable to the impacts of flooding.
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