Forecast for Wellington, New Zealand

Issued: 2026-04-05 08:41 NZST

Rest of Today, Sunday 5 April: Overcast skies will gradually clear to partly and mainly clear conditions through the afternoon and evening. Southerlies shifting to southeasterlies will blow at 20 km/h, with gusts reaching 30 to 50 km/h. The high will sit between 16°C and 17°C, and temperatures will fall to a low of 14°C to 15°C overnight.

Tomorrow, Monday 6 April: Cloud cover will remain mostly overcast, with a chance of light rain developing in the afternoon before easing by evening. Easterly winds will strengthen to 10 to 30 km/h, gusting between 20 and 50 km/h. The high is expected near 19°C to 22°C, while the overnight low will settle between 12°C and 15°C. Any rainfall that occurs will total up to 1 mm.

Tuesday 7 April: The sky will stay overcast, with a slight risk of light rain arriving in the afternoon and continuing into the evening. Northeasterlies will blow at 10 to 30 km/h, with gusts of 20 to 50 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high of 20°C to 22°C, then drop to a low of 14°C to 16°C. Expected rainfall totals around 1 mm.

Wednesday 8 April: Rain will become likely, starting as light showers in the morning and potentially turning moderate to heavy by the afternoon and evening. Winds will shift from the northeast to the south, blowing at 10 to 40 km/h with gusts of 20 to 60 km/h. The high will reach 18°C to 21°C, and the low will fall to 14°C to 16°C. Total rainfall is expected to range from 4 mm to 18 mm, with a fifty percent chance of reaching at least 10 mm.

Thursday 9 April: Skies will alternate between partly cloudy and overcast, with rain likely developing through the day and continuing into the evening. Northerlies will give way to southerlies, maintaining speeds of 10 to 40 km/h and gusting between 30 and 70 km/h. The high is expected to reach 18°C to 22°C, while the overnight low will drop to 14°C to 16°C. Rainfall will likely total 7 mm to 12 mm.

▶ Impact-Based Forecast Context

Existing Vulnerabilities

Wellington’s steep, hilly topography and history of anthropogenic slope modification (cut and fill) make the region highly susceptible to landslides during and after heavy rainfall events.
The region’s infrastructure, including major roads like the Ngauranga Gorge and Rimutaka Hill Road, is vulnerable to closures from landslides and rockfalls triggered by significant rain.
Coastal areas, particularly reclaimed land at CentrePort and parts of the airport, are experiencing subsidence, which increases their vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding during storm surges.
Stormwater systems in urban areas can be overwhelmed by intense rainfall, leading to surface flooding in low-lying areas and depressions.

Weather Impact Thresholds

Landslides: High risk is associated with prolonged or intense rainfall, particularly on steep, modified slopes; saturated ground from previous events significantly lowers the threshold for new slips.
Wind Damage: Gusts exceeding 100 km/h are common in Wellington and can cause power outages, damage to trees, and disruption to transport, including ferries and flights; extreme gusts (e.g., >140 km/h) have historically caused widespread infrastructure damage.
Heavy Rainfall: Intense rainfall events can cause flash flooding in urban areas when drainage capacity is exceeded; while specific mm thresholds vary by catchment, sustained heavy rain is a primary trigger for both flooding and slope instability.

Exposed Populations and Assets

Residents in hill suburbs living on or below steep, modified slopes are at higher risk from landslides during severe weather.
Critical transport infrastructure, including the Wellington Airport runway, major arterial roads (Ngauranga Gorge, Rimutaka Hill), and rail lines, are vulnerable to weather-related closures.
Coastal communities and businesses located on reclaimed land are exposed to risks from storm surges and potential coastal inundation.
Emergency services, hospitals, and power infrastructure are critical assets that require protection from flooding and wind-related damage to maintain regional resilience.

Upcoming Events

Resonance (theatre): 9 April 2026.
Daniel Sloss - Bitter (comedy): 9 April 2026.